From Google to Facebook: The shifting monetization landscape

December 4th, 2010

Last year, Bloomberg reported that Google, which has the market share of over 65% in search, made a $54 billion impact on US economic activity. For every $1 a company spent on search related advertising, they receive an average of $8 through profits through Google Search and AdWords. Google created a platform where businesses optimized their web presence, thus increasing monetization.

Google supplied the two necessary ingredients for a successful platform (a) Monetization and (b) Users. Rest was left to the developers to figure out as to how to connect the dots and monetize. A lot of startups were built assuming Google’s existence in mind. Entrepreneurs started developing on Google–the platform.

Things have changed in last year, with facebook becoming the destination of choice. What Google lacked as a platform, Facebook has provided a set of tools and APIs to allow developers to build on it.

On the other hand, a lot of people are calling facebook a closed platform, but if they look deeper, Facebook’s set of tools and API is the connecting link to the outside world. Facebook Connect (which has 100m+ websites using it) and the Open Graph are the window to the outside world. The former connects a facebook user to a website, whereas the latter brings the data residing outside into facebook. Combined together, this gives facebook a full-duplex connectivity with “objects” which are not within the facebook ecosystem.

As facebook accelerates the opening of the proverbial “walled garden” via even better tools & it’s API, the pace of development would also increase.

Let’s compare the google vs. facebook ecosystem. Google monetizes it’s document graph while facebook on top of social graph.

Google vs facebook: Encoding intent

Google builds on the fact that a user encodes it’s behavior by creating documents (or webpages). For example, a personal blog post has an author’s stream of consciousness encoded in it. When Coca-cola creates a webpage, the brand and it’s product intentions are encoded in an HTML document. Google then deduces the intent and the interlinked behavior and churns everything through it’s algorithm for search, discovery and monetization using it’s advertising programs. Compare this with facebook, these encodings are verbatim; relationships are threadbare. Furthermore, the intent & relationships are identifiable via the explicit intentions laid out by people connected to it. While Google monetizes the various nuggets of implied behavior, facebook does the same via harnessing the collective force of explicit intentions.

Why build on facebook? I strongly believe that as the web becomes increasingly complex, the findability of a document becomes next to impossible, we’ll go back where we started–Our personal network. The network of trusted friends and advisors for help; whether we are looking for answers to questions, recommendations for products, or simply connecting with strangers. We’ll traverse through our social graph and use the intent of the graph to get the results for our queries.

Facebook is emerging as a platform beyond intent (ad networks, lead generation) and casual interaction (social gaming, virtual gifting) but also a serious destination for tangible-goods commerce, content discovery and business to business interactions.

If you look at advertising, facebook could corner a large pie of the $140 billion brand advertising market. Compared to Google, I don’t have to search on facebook to see an ad, nor facebook has to harvest my clickstream, the sheer presence and precise demographic data and my conscious stream makes an impression commanding much higher CPMs compared to other real-estate. Search advertising on which Google builds it overall revenue of $10billion annually is just overall $25 billion worldwide. I can speculate that a portion of this would also move into the facebook ecosystem as tools for discovery and search start showing within the facebook ecosystem. The latter could add to facebook’s share of performance advertising.

Virtual and tangible-goods commerce are still under evolution. Though, facebook credits do not bring a huge windfall yet, Facebook is working on a paypal-like competitive offering which may be extended to the apps ecosystem. This is going to revv-up the revenue from non-advertising sources. Couple this with local deals from facebook places, which is still building momentum.

In case of facebook, the precision of explicit intentions is high compared to implied behaviors from reams of webpages. There is a huge possibility that facebook’s impact on the economy to be 10x than that of Google as facebook is also a destination rather than a powerful traffic cop. The space to watch is the discovery and commerce within the facebook ecosystem. There are unexpected opportunities being presented to developers and entrepreneurs to develop applications beyond gaming and now is the time to get-in!

Skilling 150mn Indians by 2022

November 17th, 2010

At the recently concluded NASSCOM Product Conclave, I moderated two panel discussions related to (a) seed/early stage funding and (b) exploring options from various agencies (and funds) affiliated with the government. In the latter panel, I had Yuvaraj Galada representing the newly formed National Skills Development Corportation (NSDC). NSDC’s charter is simple–train the Indians who are now beyond a stage to get a primary/secondary education.

A large part of Indian society has been left out of the economic development of last 20 years. Imagine the situation when informed but uneducated 300 million Indians take up cudgels and come out on the street. For the lack of education and lack of skills they would fight for the same unskilled jobs in the urban areas. This creates imbalance in the cities, leads to migration and disrupts the economics of smaller towns.

Moreover, as India tries to regain it’s position in manufacturing & development after an upward IT led growth, there is going to be a huge requirement for skilled and semi-skilled manpower to move and operate the machines. Skilling the uneducated becomes necessary. Trained manpower increases customer satisfaction at even the smallest touchpoint with service / product consumers.

NSDC’s effort is rightly timed, considering the recent UNDP Human Development Index report points out that the mean years of schooling for Indians is a paltry 4.4 years. Illiteracy and corruption are India’s Achilles’ heel. NSDC’s vision is ambitious and they have access to large corpus. They need ideas and executioners to take it forward. Let me know, if you have something going and I can connect.

Can you build a 100 crore business mining the Indian Railways data?

November 7th, 2010

Ankleshwar Railway stationphoto © 2009 Umang Dutt | more info(via: Wylio)As I write this post, I’m on board 6221 Chennai Express (or Kaveri Express, as it was announced at the station), enroute Chennai from Bangalore. Due to a foreseen inter-city rush between Chennai and Bangalore, just after Diwali, a major Indian festival, I had several wait-listed options for my round trip travel. However, none of them were moving or coming close to a confirmed travel ticket. Finally, in between the festivities I stole some time and managed to book a confirmed Tatkal ticket a mere 48 hours before the journey by paying a premium.

Tripping on Indian Railways is joyous, but predicting the upward movement of your wait-listed ticket towards confirmation is a black-art. I have been told that smart travel agents can predict the movement patterns to a fair degree of accuracy; whether a certain ticket booked 60 days ago shall become a confirmed travel document or not. So much so, they seem to possess a magical insight to predict when an “extra” coach would be added as to move all the wait-listed en-mass to a confirmed status. Hurrah!

Prediction of tickets is just one aspect, I’m higlighting. There are a lot of problems around railway travel that can be solved by using technology at it’s advantage–I’m not talking selling railway tickets on the web, that’s a much easier ‘fish to fry’.

The Real-Time Display at the LRTphoto © 2009 Lamarr Blocker | more info(via: Wylio)Replace the word railway with air and you can gauge how entrepreneurs solved interesting problems using technology and the internet in the last 15 years for air travel industry.

Do you see what I’m seeing? A 100 crore business around the business of travel in the railways. There are a lot of ideas and a lot of problems to be solved. Statisticizing the well known numbers of IRCTC transactions is not one of them but predicting the sales volume maybe one! Are you passionate about travel? Do you love technology? Come talk to us at The Morpheus, we’ll get you started up.

Due to a foreseen inter-city rush between Chennai and Bangalore just after Diwali, a major Indian festival, I had several wait-listed options for travel for my round trip lasting no less than 24 hours. However, none of them were moving or coming close to a confirmed travel ticket. Finally, in between the festivities I stole some time and managed to book a confirmed Tatkal ticket 48 hours before the journey by paying a premium.
Tripping on Indian Railways is a dream, but predicting the upward movement of your wait-listed ticket towards confirmation is a black-art. I have been told that smart travel agent can predict the movement patterns to a fair degree of accuracy whether a certain ticket booked 60 days ago shall become a confirmed travel document or not. So much so, they seem to possess a magical insight to predict when an “extra” coach would be added as to move all the wait-listed en-mass to a confirmed status. Hurrah!
Prediction of tickets is just one aspect, I’m higlighting, there are a lot of problems around railway travel can be solved by using technology at it’s advantage–I’m not talking selling railway tickets on the web, that’s a much easier ‘fish to fry’.
Replace the word railway with airlines and I see how entrepreneurs solved interesting problems using technology and the internet in the last 15 years.
Do you see what I’m seeing? A 100 crore business around the business of travel in the railways. There are a lot of ideas and a lot of problems to be solved. Statisticiazing the number of IRCTC transactions is not one of them but predicting the sales volume maybe one!

Entrepreneurs dilemma: Is my business venture fundable?

October 31st, 2010

Companies have become easier to build. There are fewer breakout companies with the size of JustDial, Via, One97, etc. Should the entrepreneur build a company to cover the expenses and have a good supporting income? Or build a business which is large enough to be venture-funded with an exit the size of MakeMyTrip?

This is classic entrepreneurs dilemma when starting out. The choice a founder makes and the venture he is building would determine the outcome. I was at recently concluded unpluggd2 event where someone asked the same question.

A very interesting blog post is doing the rounds and was shared by Shashank, Sameer and others. Quoting the bullet #41 & #42:

41. Know what kind of company you are trying to build.  There are very few Googles and Facebooks.  A good outcome for your business might be a $10M exit or a $20M exit or a $100M exit or no exit at all.  Plan for the business you want to build.  Don’t just shoot for the moon.  From a money-in-your-pocket and return on time spent standpoint, owning 20% of a $20M exit in 2 years is much better than owning 3% of a $100M business in 5 years.

42. Related to #41, understand whether your business is a VC business or not. A VC business is expected to deliver 10x returns to investors.  That means if you’re taking money with a $5M post-money valuation, the expectation is that you are building for a minimum $50M exit.  $10M post-money valuation = $100M target.  That’s not to say that you might not sell the company for less and everyone involved might be happy with that outcome, but that’s not what you are signing up for when you take VC money with such a valuation.  Know what the implications of taking VC money are and what it means for expectations on you.

I don’t have to add any thing–the bullets say it all. You can overcome this dilemma by answering the following:

  1. If I take Rs. 1 crore from an investor, can I return Rs. 10 crores back in 5 years or so?
  2. Can the business double it’s revenues every year without adding a lot of people to it?
  3. If my neighbor finds out about my business, can he also build it?
  4. Am I building something which very few people have built?
  5. If there is a list of top 100 innovative businesses, would the business qualify?

It’s totally fine, if your business is not a venture fundable business. A lot of businesses are like that.

Are you a journalist / writer with a passion for politics? Do you care about this country?

October 24th, 2010

bandeBande Mataram. Samachar Darpan. Kesari. Ghadar. Somprakash. Sudharak. Young India. Akali. Pratap. These are the names of the newspapers which played an important role during India’s freedom struggle. Printed on paper, they were the mouthpieces of the revolutionaries. The newspapers during those days brought people of similar ideologies together; a vision of free India and a burning desire to end the oppressive rule of British empire.

Today in free India, the newspapers have been taken over by business houses — there is far more advertising and commercial content being peddled to the masses than before. From soft-porn, cleaving-doting images of celebrities to pure gadgetry which is out of the reach of the common masses. The serious issues of corruption, nepotism, bribery, lack of empathy towards the needs of the common is overlooked by larger parlays of ministerial horse-trading. Sometimes, it takes time to figure out for whom the day’s paper was edited.

On the flip-side, the exciting part is that world is coming full-circle. Internet is bringing people together and giving choices. Internet gives an opportunity to connect, collaborate and bring together a voice which can be amplified several 100 times. US President Barrack Obama’s online campaign has shown us how voices from individuals can easily become a movement. It also shows that a web-only political news website like TalkingPointsMemo can win awards for it’s unbiased coverage on legal, political and social matters which are ignored by the main-stream media. The power of Internet also shows in the form of Huffington Post, where it is now a leading destination of social, political and business commentary from 3,000 eminent writers from politicians to policy experts to celebs.

During the Indian freedom movement, Bhagat Singh used to edit the Amritsar newspaper named Akali and contributed regularly to several others. In one such he wrote (edited) :

“The people generally get accustomed to the established order of things and begin to tremble at the very idea of a change. It is this lethargical spirit that needs be replaced by the revolutionary spirit. Otherwise degeneration gains the upper hand and the whole humanity is led stray by the reactionary forces. Such a state of affiars leads to stagnation and paralysis in human progress. The spirit of Revolution should always permeate the soul of humanity, so that the reactionary forces may not accumulate (strength) to check its eternal onward march. Old order should change, always and ever, yielding place to new…”

India is at the inflection point of revolution; we are seeing excesses of everything. Just like the days of British Raj, one sector of the society has access to the necessities (and more) of life, whereas a large part is devoid. The revolution can be brought only by stitching of information and recirculating the same to the masses in turn bringing awareness.

I believe with the power of Internet, there is a need to create a new mouthpiece of the common man, just like Mahatama Gandhi did with ‘Young India’ or Bipinchandra Pal did with ‘Bande Mataram’. We at Morpheus want to play a role in this change; if you are a passionate writer or a journalist and think you can persevere for next 5 years; away from the niceties of a mainstream media publication, and create such voice online for 999 million Indians; I would love to talk to you.

Image credit: Sri Aurobindo Society

Don’t copy my content: Can you build a business on subverting plagiarism?

October 21st, 2010

Last week twitterverse had activity around India Today lifting pieces from the Slate magazine and republishing. The editor apologized, later. This is not an isolated incident and has become increasingly common as content becomes a currency for generating revenues. This will become more important as the content volume increases and the legal structure gets

Wikipedia Plagiarizetightened. If you know the alleys of “dark-web”, there are scores of sites who do a hedge between adsense / adwords for a 2-3% margin on incoming vs. outgoing clicks. Most of them rely on a mash-up of content sourced through various means.

Every piece of content on the web is written / created by people who take time to research and write about the topic. Not every body wants to monetize, they just want to write.

Plagiarism is not just for the “commercial” web, but it is becoming increasingly common in the academia where students are lifting texts and adding it to their thesis. One such incident was brought to light in India where a professor and his students at IIT-Kanpur lifted pieces from Wikipedia (come on!) and other journals for their research and are now under reprimand.

Catching plagiarism is not easy without tools. There are a handful of  free / paid tools on the web. A few of them are doing great work. But, I think a lot of more can be done and there are large problems to be solved around plagiarism (without going to specifics of the ideas I have). We are looking for entrepreneurs who can build web applications around this problem and build a business on this. If you are geek / scientist / hacker then drop a note and participate in batch 5 of Morpheus.

Read more about Plagiarism at http://www.plagiarism.org/

Picture courtesy Krista76

3 demons the startup entrepreneur must kill

October 17th, 2010

This post is about young ventures which are less than 18 months old and maybe applicable to others as well.

I’m on my way back from the jungles of Tamilnadu, where I was off-grid for the best part of the week. Trekking, bathing, detoxing, imbibing nature, completing half-read books, reflecting on the last 24-month jaunt in India and pondering about the future. Today marks Dussera, a Hindu festival, where as per mythology, Lord Rama’s exile culminates with the killing of demon king Raavan.

Continuing the tradition, large effigies of Raavan is burnt along with his two 258562356_5e965073e5_mother cohorts viz. Kumbhakarna and Indrajeet, to celebrate the victory of  good over evil.

A startup’s journey is crowded with demons, internal and external, who are ready with their poison arrows. One wrong stance leads to a certain gnawing death. An entrepreneur in business, who has started up, faces several such demons. Based on my experience working with The Morpheus portfolio companies, coming out victorious is just another milestone:

  1. Feature overload Solve a small problem first, get the version 1.0 of the product out. Iterate quickly with feedback, instead of building features for every customer under the sun. Think what you can build as a minimum viable product, keeping a target customer in mind. Feature overload can easily be tackled by (a) Smart prioritization (b) getting feedback from potential customers, and (c) simply trusting your instincts.
  2. Monetary shenanigans Startups are not about starvation, but it’s about being efficient with money. Kill your money demons. Some to be killed while starting up and some on the way (a) Save enough for the journey before taking the plunge (b) Ask family/friends for help (c) If you have a few customers using your product, then talk to a few individual angels (d) Get an incubator to support you. Talk to us at The Morpheus
  3. People & Teaming Issues One of the major pain point a young venture faces is around people. Issue around people is the biggest demon. You may not have a team, recruiting the right people is a demon. If you have a team then making sure that they are motivated and ready to deliver is another. And then god forbid, issues between founders is yet another. A lot of young startups go on the wayside due to strained relationship between the founders or the founding team than anything else. There are a lot of ways of dealing with people/team related issues including (a) Right motivation for everybody in the journey (b) Keeping a clear line of communication and communicating more often than not (c) Not making assumptions about each other (d) Mutual respect for each other (e) Letting it go

These demons are multi-headed and get reborn. Killing them once is not enough. They come back in different life forms; like the mighty Raavan, who had consumed the nectar of immortality; only to be killed later with a strategic arrow.

A very happy Dussera to all and may you kill all the demons lurking in your venture!

Picture courtesy Jigisha.

Competitive Density Matrix: Sizing up your product/features against others

October 11th, 2010

This post suggests a technique for analyzing competition & feature comparison against competitive products. If there is a better name for this, feel free to suggest.

Ignorance is definitely not bliss for a startup CEO when it comes to sizing up the competition. You have to know the other players in the business, what they are doing, what products & features they have and what markets they are operating in.  When you propose your product/plan/idea to prospective employees or investors — the first thing which goes in their mind is ‘scanning the competitive landscape.’

There are several traditional ways of sizing up the competition, including (a) drawing MxN matrices with company names on the left & features on the top and simply a (b) 2×2 quadrant (eg. Gartner’s magic quadrant) with companies plotted in clusters using 2 broad parameters. The picture below shows the traditional MxN style competitive analysis comparing Wikis (on the left) and their features (on the top):

MxN competitive analysis

MxN competitive analysis

Competitive Density Matrix is a different way of sizing up the competition. The perspective is to turn the matrix inside out by plotting features on the left and weights (Bad, Average, Excellent) on the top. You mark the companies at the intersection (cells) based on your knowledge of who are the companies and what is their depth of implementation of that feature. Here is the outline comparing the wiki platforms with ratings. The companies are entered in the cells. The traditional MxN competitive matrix can be re-purposed as below:

Competitive Density Matrix

Competitive Density Matrix

After you have “plotted” the companies against the features, next is the analysis to detect cells which have higher occupancy while some have none. Here is a an analysis:

Competitive Density Matrix: Cell density & whitespace

Competitive Density Matrix: Cell density & whitespace

The analysis from the above example of the wikis shows us “whitespaces” and “heavily competitive spaces” as follows:

  • The File uploading feature in various Wiki software is implemented by everybody and is mature
  • The inline HTML feature requires strengthing up so does the wysiwyg feature

The objective which competitive density matrix helps you achieve is:

  1. Drilling down into the features which you are planning to build in your product and size them up against your competition
  2. It goes beyond the broad level quadrants and simple Yes/No analysis but helps you assess which areas have been zeroed in by other players
  3. If the white space you see corroborates with a customer feedback or gap or a unique IP you have built, that could be a good differentiator

4-years on Amazon Cloud!

September 28th, 2010

I was introduced to Amazon EC2 by a friend who gave me early access to Amazon cloud infrastructure before it was launched publicly. Then Amazon announced a limited public beta on Aug 25 2006 (We used to read DDJ, then) and I got my personal account and have been hooked since then. While doing Tejit, I ran a crawler farm with an early implementation of Map-Reduce along with an NLP engine on EC2. At it’s peak, I had around a dozen instances wired via the Simple Queuing Service for job propagation. I discovered SQS by chance, while struggling with a Java-RMI based implementation for crawler job assignments.

If I remember it correctly, there was only one instance during launch which was m1.small:

the equivalent of a 1.7 GHz Xeon processor, 1.75 GB of RAM, 160 GB of local disk and 250 Mb/second of network bandwidth. You pay just 10 cents per clock hour

During it’s peak and several months before and after I have paid a lot of money to Amazon’s Cloud infrastructure specially to EC2 and sucked in a lot of bandwidth. Happy that today, I complete 4 years as a paid-user of Amazon! Here’s a snapshot of my Access Key which was created on Sep 27, 2006! Viva Amazon.

4 years as a paid user at Amazon Cloud

Why the pitch is important?

September 20th, 2010

PresentationWhat’s a pitch? It’s a short presentation, which talks about your startup in less than 10 minutes. The pitch could be in the form of a presentation along with A/V in front of crowd. Or done in a meeting room setup for just 2 prospects. A pitch may also be in the form of a sit-down discussion to prospective employees or investors. Why it is important? Simple answer. No product or service can be sold better unless it is marketed even better.

Couple of months ago, while speaking at a business planning workshop, I was confronted by a senior academician on the subject of delivery of the content, rather than the content itself. The question came up when I gave a very candid feedback about one of the presenters after he delivered his ‘pitch’ in front of me and the rest of the audience. I stuck to the guns of the importance of delivery and said:

I strongly believe that the pitch is super important. Why?

  1. You are convincing an audience to believe in your product
  2. We are living in a hyper-competitive world. Unless you are able to communicate, your message remains confined to your vocal cords
  3. If you as an entrepreneur can’t deliver a 5-minute pitch, how would you talk a customer into buying your product

Let’s take the perspective of the audience. The audience may have your prospective customers, investors, employees. In today’s hyper-competitive and noisy world, they get bombarded with marketing message all the time. Customers are inundated with options for various products, investors are bombarded with offer to invest. The best idea is to convince them when they have your attention as an audience.

The content is equally important. It happens all the time that the messenger delivered an excellent pitch, but the content is weak. Sure, for the uninitiated, who may not understand the content, may get hypnotized by the delivery, but it does not go beyond that pitch.

Moreover, presentation skills to get the job done are very acquirable. Here are some quick tips:

  1. You have to start practicing. If you suck at it, then you need at least 20 hours of face-time with an audience to get better and stop being perceived like an idiot
  2. Go to barcamp. Propose a session. Barcampers are forgetful, they see all sorts of presenters all the time! I personally have done sessions since 2005 and each subsequent was 5x better than the previous one.
  3. Call up a college and tell them that you want to do a 1-hour session on some random topic of your choice. Don’t worry, students are forgiving
  4. Record a 30-second greeting on your phone. Play it back. Even better, record yourself on camera, play it back, get embarrassed and fix it. Show the recording to friends you trust, take their feedback
  5. Organize a karaoke at home. Call at least 2 common friends, you have never met. Sing.
  6. Even simpler–Call up the customer service of a company. Towards the end of the call, ask for feedback, how fluent your english was. Not joking. Try it. Works.

You don’t have to be Guy Kawasaki to hypnotize the crowd–Instead, simply someone who stands comfortably in front of other people and is able to articulate the business.

image credit to aussiegall